Temporal and Spatial Changes and Multi-scenario Simulation Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on FLUS-InVEST Model: A Case Study of Chengdu–Deyang–Meishan–Ziyang Area

Studying the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems and accounting for carbon emissions and storage of various land uses can support territorial spatial planning and optimize land use by effectively quantifying carbon emissions. Taking Chengdu–Deyang–Meishan–Ziyang Area in Sichuan Province as an sample, this research, based on land use data in 2000, 2010 and 2020, and coupled with the FLUS-InVEST model, analyzes the temporal and spatial changes of carbon storage in the past 20 years. It also simulates and predicts the carbon storage under three scenarios with different ecological restoration efforts in 2030. The result shows that from 2000 to 2020, the carbon storage in the study area decreases due to the degradation of cultivated land and grassland and the reduction in carbon sequestration capacity; by 2030, with the indentisfication of ecological restoration efforts, the carbon storage loss will gradually decrease, the quality of the ecological space will be further improved, and the carbon sequestration capacity of the ecosystem will also be significantly enhanced; in the future, existing policies and plans can well improve the weak points of carbon storage in the study area and effectively enhance carbon sequestration capacity thereof. This research proposes to the terrestrial spatial ecological restoration planning, lead a low-carbon life in a multi-pronged way, and help the study area to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.