Objective Resource-based cities in Heilongjiang Province have encountered a series of challenges during their transformation, including resource depletion, industrial decline, environmental pollution, and population outflow. These issues stem from historical over exploitation of resources, outdated processing methods, insufficient socioeconomic reforms, and the dominance of single-resource industrial structures. In the context of sustainable development transformation, these cities face intertwined complexities of historical legacies and emerging challenges. From the perspective of evolutionary resilience, urban resilience is defined as a system’s capacity to resist, transform, and adapt to risks. By adopting adaptive planning strategies and dynamic evolutionary approaches aligned with urban system development laws, cities can shift from "outcome-oriented" to "process-oriented" frameworks, offering novel pathways for sustainable transformation. However, leveraging resilience pathways to address developmental bottlenecks and deepen sustainability remains a critical research gap requiring further exploration.
Methods This study measures the resilience of 9 resource-based cities in Heilongjiang Province (Daqing, Yichun, Mudanjiang, Heihe, Daxinganling, Hegang, Jixi, Shuangyashan, Qitaihe) using a combined methodology of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and catastrophe progression method, while identifying dynamic evolution characteristics through the adaptive cycle framework. First, urban risk factors were summarized through field investigations and literature review, constructing a resilience evaluation index system encompassing 4 dimensions, 12 primary indicators, 23 secondary indicators, and 59 tertiary indicators. Second, multi-source data (statistical yearbooks, spatial data, and government reports from 2010 to 2019 for nine cities) were collected, processed, and validated. Resilience values were quantified using PCA-catastrophe progression integration. Third, the adaptive cycle framework was applied to analyze resilience evolution patterns across three city types: oil, forestry, and coal. The theoretical framework posits that resilience evolution follows a spiral process through four phases: exploitation (r, rapid growth), conservation (K, stability), release (Ω, rapid decline), and reorganization (α, recovery). Notably, the release phase (Ω) serves as the critical juncture for cyclical transitions. Finally, tailored recommendations were proposed for each city type based on their unique evolutionary trajectories.
Results The findings reveal distinct hierarchical differentiation among various types of resource-based cities in Heilongjiang Province. 1) In terms of resilience measurement outcomes, Overall resilience showed an upward trend with a temporary decline in 2016, attributed to external economic shocks. Spatial distribution exhibited a "stepped gradient" increasing from northern to southern regions, reflecting geographic disparities in industrial structure and policy implementation. 2) In terms of resilience evolutionary characteristics, Petroleum-based cities shows stepwise growth with fluctuations, influenced by global oil price volatility and domestic policy adjustments. Forestry-based cities show steady stepwise growth, driven by sustainable forestry practices and ecological compensation policies. Coal-based cities show significant volatility alongside upward trends, linked to cyclical coal market dynamics and green transition pressures. All cities skipped the reorganization phase (α), transitioning directly from release (Ω) to exploitation (r), resulting in fragmented cycles dominated by national Five-Year Plans and policy interventions.
Conclusion The resilience evolution of resource-based cities in Heilongjiang Province has not undergone a complete four-stage adaptive cycle. Instead, these cities transitioned directly from the release phase (Ω) to the exploitation phase (r), omitting the reorganization phase (α). Their evolutionary trajectory is heavily influenced by national Five-Year Plans and policy interventions, exhibiting three distinct characteristics: Periodic discontinuity, Policy dominance, and Industrial heterogeneity. Therefore this study propose differentiated pathways for resilience enhancement a based on these evolutionary features: Petroleum-based cities should reduce inefficient redundant elements and enhance interconnectivity among components to facilitate a shift from a monolithic industrial structure toward economic diversification, thereby mitigating systemic collapse risks from structural homogeneity. Forestry-based cities should rapidly accumulate diverse urban components (e.g., infrastructure, human capital, ecological assets) to increase systemic redundancy, strengthening endogenous drivers for resilience improvement. Coal-based cities should leverage external shocks as transformative opportunities. Through comprehensive systemic repair and upgrading, vigorously develop new industrial and social elements to rebuild structural stability of the system. This study developed a tailored resilience quantification model using PCA-catastrophe progression integration and multi-year data, enriching methodological approaches for resilience research in China’s resource-based cities. The adaptive cycle framework revealed divergent evolution patterns across city types, emphasizing the need for differentiated strategies: oil cities should prioritize market diversification, forestry cities should enhance ecological governance, and coal cities require accelerated green industrial transitions. These findings provide adaptable measurement references and quantitative tools to support sustainable development strategies for Heilongjiang Province, bridging gaps between theoretical frameworks and practical policymaking.
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